My 2011 Election Prediction

If someone had told me a month ago that the NDP and the Liberals would have exchanged places in the poll I would not have believed it. Jack Layton has run a very tight yet engaging campaign. He has not faltered from his message of support for families. I find it so interesting how both Harper and Ignatieff became so afraid of Layton and the NDP in the last week of the campaign.

This is a really hard election to call. There are so many variables to consider. Really, it depends on who can get the vote out. If the polls are correct and the NDP support does not erode then Jack Layton stands a very good chance of taking the NDP to its best performance ever. He may even be leader of the Official Opposition.

I think Harper can expect another minority parliament. He did very little to allay the fears of voters with what he would do if he won a majority. I think many people are weary of Harper saying he needs a majority to govern. He needs a majority if he is going to be a dictator.

The real question mark right now is Quebec. If support for the Bloc Quebecois has diminished and if most of it goes to the NDP the results of this election will be one for the history books. Clearly Quebec is not going to support the Liberals no matter how often they trot out Jean Chretien. The problem with the Liberals is Michael Ignatieff. Apparently he has charisma if you meet him in person, however he does not present well on TV. He comes across as a pompous ass who thinks he knows what is best for us.

The Liberals are done until they get a real leader. They need someone with vision and charisma not a professor lecturing to them. Since Jean Chretien stepped down, the Liberals have floundered. Paul Martin wanted to be prime minister simply to be prime minister. He didn’t have a vision for what he wanted to do for the country. Stephane Dion had promise but he got bogged down in policy.

Harper has shown his true colours this campaign. All of the scandals aside, his insistence on only answering 5 questions a day was quite arrogant. He was so tightly wound and uncomfortable. His perseveration on the ‘coalition’ became so tiresome. He consistently misrepresented several issues.

The other unknown is the youth vote. It is interesting that neither the Liberals nor Conservatives has tried to engage the youth vote. I suspect they are afraid that youth will support the NDP. Rick Mercer has done a great deal to get the youth of Canada more engaged in the political process. If the youth vote in droves it may well be enough to put the NDP over the top.

I think we will have another minority parliament. If the NDP gets the vote out then they well could form the Official Opposition. There is a role the governor-general could play here as well. He could ask the opposition parties to form a government if the numbers are close. It is only convention that dictates that the party with the largest number of seats forms the government. I think it is not likely he will do that but the possibility does exist.

If things happen like I have predicted, Michael Ignatieff will resign tomorrow night. There is nothing the Liberal Party of Canada can do to rehabilitate his leadership. Instead of having a leadership coronation again, like they did with Michael Ignatieff. The Liberals need an exciting and engaging leadership campaign with younger contenders. It is my hope that Justin Trudeau become the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. I think he has the charisma and the leadership skills to bring the Liberals back.

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4 CommentsLeave a comment

  1. I’d love to see Justin Trudeau as the next leader of the Liberal party, and he’ll make a great Leader of the Opposition. I think Prime Minister Layton will be happy to work with this smart, engaged and engaging young man. When Stephen Harper has to move into an apartment (if he can get a reference from someone) after vacating 24 Sussex Drive, PM Layton will likely invite Justin and family over for a BBQ. Then Jack and family can go to Stornaway for a potluck. Cool.

  2. I agree that the Liberals need a good leader. I am also surprised at the NDP party gaining so much support.

  3. I think it’ll be a minority Con government with an NDP official opposition when all is said & done today. As for Michael Ignatieff, yep, he needs to go. I like the idea of Justin Trudeau getting in there, too.

  4. I firmly believe (and hope) that Justin Trudeau will be PM someday, but I do believe he needs more experience in Politics and Parliament before that happens.


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